Viendo archivo del viernes, 12 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 255 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
flare was a B8 from Region 456 (S07W45) at 12/2000Z. A long
duration B7 X-ray enhancement occurred at 11/2237 and was correlated
with the two disappearing solar filaments. The first DSF was five
degrees long and lifted off around 11/2100Z near S25E05. The second
DSF followed the first and was along the same inversion line. This
DSF was about ten-degrees long and lifted off near S18E15. LASCO C2
imagery indicates a partial halo CME associated with the DSF's.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
speed remains elevated near 600 km/s and Bz has been predominantly
northward.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Activity on day one and
day two is expected to be quiet to unsettled. CME effects are
possible on day three with activity expected to be at unsettled to
active levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Sep a 15 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Sep 094 Previsto 13 Sep-15 Sep 095/100/105 Media de 90 Días 12 Sep 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Sep 010/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Sep 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 010/010-010/010-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Sep a 15 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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