Viendo archivo del viernes, 19 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 262 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours. The first was a C2 at 18/2151 UTC which
appears to have originated from a region behind the east limb near
S06. The second was a C1 at 1820 UTC which was associated with
activity in Region 461 (N17E21). Region 461 continues to be the
largest region on the disk. Region 459 (S11W27) is showing slow,
steady growth and possesses a predominantly East-West inversion
line.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to minor storm levels during
the past 24 hours. This activity was due to the continued influence
of a high speed solar wind stream associated with a favorably
positioned coronal hole. Solar wind velocity has shown a slow
decline over the past 24 hours, with initial values around 800 km/s
having decreased to day-end values around 675 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with some isolated minor storm periods
for the next two days as the current disturbance persists. A decline
to unsettled to slightly active is expected by the third day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Sep 111 Previsto 20 Sep-22 Sep 110/115/115 Media de 90 Días 19 Sep 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Sep 029/040 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Sep 025/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 020/025-020/025-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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