Viendo archivo del jueves, 16 octubre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 289 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Oct 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Today's flare activity
consisted of a few B-class events. There are currently only two,
small sunspot groups on the solar disk. Some minor surging and
brightenings were observed on East limb at about N18.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind data show the continuation of a high speed stream
associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole. There was a
gradual decreasing tendency in the velocities today, with initial
values around 620 km/s decreasing to around 560 km/s by the end of
the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high
levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours as the high speed
solar wind stream continues. A slight decline to unsettled to active
is expected on day two, and predominantly unsettled levels are
expected on day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Oct 095 Previsto 17 Oct-19 Oct 100/100/105 Media de 90 Días 16 Oct 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 022/042 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 025/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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