Viendo archivo del miércoles, 15 octubre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 288 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Oct 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. A new region was
numbered today as Region 480 (N20W26).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions with
isolated major storm conditions at high latitudes. These effects
are the result of a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions for 16-17
October. Unsettled to active levels are expected for 18 October.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Oct 096 Previsto 16 Oct-18 Oct 100/105/105 Media de 90 Días 15 Oct 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Oct 033/048 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 030/042 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 025/030-020/030-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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