Viendo archivo del sábado, 8 noviembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 312 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Nov 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Two new regions emerged
today: Region 498 (S03W26) and Region 499 (S17W19). Both of these
regions are small and simple. A 20 degree filament running from
S10W01 to S20W20 faded between 07/2200 UTC and 08/0200 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels during
the past 24 hours. A noticeable increase was seen in solar wind
magnetic field and density, beginning around 1000-1200 UTC which
transitioned activity from quiet levels to unsettled levels. The
signatures appear to be consistent with a co-rotating interaction
region which presages the onset of an expected high-speed coronal
hole solar wind stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes were
enhanced but below threshold today, and showed a steady downward
trend during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 09-10 November as the
coronal-hole driven disturbance is expected to commence. Mostly
active conditions are expected to prevail on 11 November.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Nov a 11 Nov
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Nov 093 Previsto 09 Nov-11 Nov 095/095/095 Media de 90 Días 08 Nov 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Nov 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Nov 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 015/015-015/020-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Nov a 11 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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