Viendo archivo del miércoles, 12 noviembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 316 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Nov 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest x-ray flare of the
past day was a C3 at 12/1819 UTC. Although no optical flare reports
were received, satellite observations suggest that this activity
occurred in Region 498 (S02W80).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The most likely source of an M-flare is at the east
limb near the returning location of old active Region 484 (N03,
L=355).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels. The
coronal hole high-speed stream continues.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods in
response to a coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Nov a 15 Nov
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Nov 099 Previsto 13 Nov-15 Nov 115/130/145 Media de 90 Días 12 Nov 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Nov 039/051 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Nov 025/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 025/025-025/030-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Nov a 15 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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