Viendo archivo del sábado, 22 noviembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 326 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Nov 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Regions 501 (N03W44), 507
(N09E22), and 508 (S17E34) all produced C-class flares during the
period. No significant development was observed in any active
region on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 501, 507, and 508 may produce isolated major
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The 10
MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit continues at enhanced levels
just below the 10 pfu threshold.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm
conditions on 23 November due to the effects of high speed solar
wind streams associated with a coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Nov a 25 Nov
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Nov 176 Previsto 23 Nov-25 Nov 180/190/190 Media de 90 Días 22 Nov 131
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Nov 018/039 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Nov 010/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 020/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Nov a 25 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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