Viendo archivo del viernes, 19 diciembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Dec 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 353 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Dec 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Regions 525 (N10E31) and
528 (N09E62) produced several C-class events during the period,
including a C9.3/Sf at 19/0818Z from Region 528. No new regions
were numbered today, but SOHO/EIT imagery indicates that more active
regions lie just beyond the east limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated major flares are possible from Regions 525
and 528.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through the period. Isolated
chance of active to minor storm conditions are possible 20-21
December, as the geomagnetic field comes under the influence of high
speed solar wind from a coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Dec a 22 Dec
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Dec 123 Previsto 20 Dec-22 Dec 135/135/140 Media de 90 Días 19 Dec 137
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Dec 002/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Dec 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Dec a 22 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 08% |
All times in UTC
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