Viendo archivo del sábado, 6 diciembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Dec 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 340 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Dec 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 510 (S23W96)
produced frequent x-ray flares through the day. Its largest were an
M1 at 1120 UTC and an M2 at 1546 UTC. This region was by far the
most active center, as the other spotted regions were quiet and
stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
generally low. There is a declining probability of an M-class flare
as Region 510 rotates farther beyond west limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A high
speed stream's influence diminished throughout the day. The greater
than 2 MeV electrons at GOES were at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 48 hours. Enhanced
solar wind may cause periods of minor storming during local
nighttimes. Activity should increase again on 9 December as another
high speed stream is due.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Dec a 09 Dec
| Clase M | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Dec 109 Previsto 07 Dec-09 Dec 105/105/105 Media de 90 Días 06 Dec 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Dec 021/043 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Dec 020/022 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 020/020-015/015-025/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Dec a 09 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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