Viendo archivo del lunes, 10 enero 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Jan 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 010 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Jan 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 719 (S08E55)
remains a two-spot beta magnetic configuration, with several minor
plage fluctuations. Region 718 (S07E46) continues to show no
notable activity. Region 720 (N09E69) was newly numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 719 continues to have a fair chance for flare
activity, but poses little threat for greater than an isolated
C-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. Interplanetary
magnetic field and solar wind have both been relatively steady for
the last 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. No significant
disturbance anticipated for 11 Jan, but a large coronal hole is
moving into geoeffective position for 12 and 13 Jan. Most of the
high-speed solar wind stream will be above Earth's orbit, and should
only provide a slight potential for active to isolated minor
storming levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Jan a 13 Jan
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Jan 090 Previsto 11 Jan-13 Jan 085/090/090 Media de 90 Días 10 Jan 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Jan 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Jan 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/008-010/015-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Jan a 13 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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