Viendo archivo del viernes, 18 agosto 2006

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Aug 18 2203 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 230 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Aug 2006

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. Region 904 (S13W42) produced a couple of B-class flares today. This region continues to be large, but has lost some of its magnetic complexity in the trailing spots.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low, with just a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 904.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours. An active period was observed between 18/0300Z - 18/0600Z. A weak shock was observed by ACE at approximately 18/1550Z. Following the shock, the solar wind speed at ACE increased from approximately 360 km/sec to about 420 km/sec. However, the IMF remained predominantly northward. There was a 5 nT sudden impulse observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 18/1644Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels, with possible isolated major storm conditions on 19 August, due to the full halo CME observed on 16 August. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 20 August, due to a coronal hole moving into a geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled conditions should return on 21 August.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Aug a 21 Aug
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       18 Aug 089
  Previsto   19 Aug-21 Aug  090/090/090
  Media de 90 Días        18 Aug 077
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 17 Aug  004/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 18 Aug  010/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  025/025-015/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Aug a 21 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%30%20%
Tormenta Menor20%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%30%25%
Tormenta Menor25%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%01%

All times in UTC

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