Viendo archivo del viernes, 14 diciembre 2007
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2007 Dec 14 2203 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 348 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Dec 2007IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 978 (S09W40)
produced several low-level C-class x-ray flares during the past
twenty-four hours. The region has decayed in white light area, and
is now in a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low to low levels. Region 978 has the potential of further
C-class activity, and a slight chance of an isolated low-level
M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels for the forecast
period (15 to 17 December). On 15 December expect conditions to
continue at quiet levels. 16 December should see a slight increase
in activity to include unsettled conditions. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to impact the geomagnetic field
on 17 December. Active to minor storm periods at middle latitudes,
and major storm conditions at high latitudes, are expected with this
coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Dec a 17 Dec
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Dec 092 Previsto 15 Dec-17 Dec 090/090/085 Media de 90 Días 14 Dec 071
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Dec 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Dec 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 005/005-008/010-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Dec a 17 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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