Viendo archivo del martes, 30 septiembre 2008
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2008 Sep 30 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 274 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Sep 2008IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed values
measured by the ACE spacecraft began the period at approximately 350
km/s. At around 1130Z on 30 September a Co-rotating Interaction
Region (CIR) was observed at ACE. In association with the CIR wind
speeds gradually increased to end the period at about 500 km/s with
interplanetary magnetic field Bz values ranging between +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with a chance for
major storm periods at high latitudes for day one (01 October) of
the forecast period. The increase in activity is due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective
position. The coronal hole is expected to remain geoeffective days
two and three (02 and 03 October) of the forecast period. However,
activity should decrease to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance
for isolated active levels at high latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Oct a 03 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Sep 066 Previsto 01 Oct-03 Oct 066/066/066 Media de 90 Días 30 Sep 066
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Sep 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Sep 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 020/025-008/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Oct a 03 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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