Viendo archivo del sábado, 12 febrero 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Feb 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 043 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Feb 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1159 (N18E12) produced a
C2 x-ray flare at 12/1506Z. Newly numbered Region 1160 near N16E86
produced several B-class flares from around the east limb early in
the period, as well as B8 x-ray flare at 12/2036Z. Two limb CMEs
were observed on LASCO C2 in conjunction with flaring that
originated from the proximity of Region 1160. A Type II radio sweep
with an estimated speed of 1,977 km/s was reported by the Paleahua
Solar Observatory at 11/2146Z and is believed to be associated with
the first of the two aforementioned CMEs. Neither CME is forecast to
be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares likely and a chance for a M-class flare during
the next 3 days (13-15 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1 and 2 (13 and 14 February)
and quiet to unsettled with a chance for active conditions on day 3
(15 February), due to a recurrent extension of the southern crown
coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Feb a 15 Feb
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Feb 096 Previsto 13 Feb-15 Feb 096/098/098 Media de 90 Días 12 Feb 084
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Feb 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Feb 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Feb a 15 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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