Viendo archivo del domingo, 16 enero 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jan 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 016 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Jan 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1147
(N27E65) produced isolated to occasional B-flares. Region 1147 is
currently classified as a Dso-Beta group with 5 spots.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels during the period (17-19 January) with a
chance for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (17 January). Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected on day two (18 January), due to a weak coronal
hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected again on day three
(19 January).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Jan a 19 Jan
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Jan 080 Previsto 17 Jan-19 Jan 080/080/082 Media de 90 Días 16 Jan 084
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Jan 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 005/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Jan a 19 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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