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Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 168 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Jun 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region 1234 (S16W48) and Region 1236 (N17E33) each produced isolated B-class x-ray flares. A B7 x-ray flare occurred near the SE limb at 17/0646Z. Region 1234 showed a gradual increase in interior spots during the period and was classified as a Dsi group with a simple bipolar magnetic structure. Region 1236 showed a gradual decrease in magnetic complexity in its trailer portion and was classified as a Dho with a beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (18 - 20 June) with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels. An active period was observed during 07/0000 - 0300Z. A geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) was observed at Boulder at 17/0244Z (31 nT) and indicated the arrival of the partial-halo CME observed on 14 June.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (18 June). Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 2 (19 June). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 3 (20 June) as a coronal hole high-speed stream begins to disturb the field.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Jun a 20 Jun
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       17 Jun 104
  Previsto   18 Jun-20 Jun  105/105/105
  Media de 90 Días        17 Jun 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 16 Jun  003/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 17 Jun  013/013
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  007/008-005/005-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Jun a 20 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%10%20%
Tormenta Menor01%01%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%15%25%
Tormenta Menor01%01%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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