Viendo archivo del jueves, 13 octubre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Oct 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 286 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Oct 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. A new spot group emerged and
was numbered Region 1320 (S22W39). There are currently ten numbered
regions, several producing C-class events.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event over the next 3 days (14-16
October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (14 October). Conditions are
forecast to increase to quiet to unsettled conditions with the
chance for active periods on days 2 and 3 (15-16 October) from
anticipated CH HSS effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Oct a 16 Oct
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Oct 138 Previsto 14 Oct-16 Oct 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 13 Oct 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Oct 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Oct 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Oct a 16 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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