Viendo archivo del martes, 15 noviembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 319 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Nov 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to two M-class flares
observed during the period. Region 1348 (N20W84) produced an M1/Sf
at 15/0912Z, while Region 1346 (S18E27) produced an M1/Sf at
15/1243Z. A 13 degree long filament, centered near S24W37, was
first observed lifting off in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at about 14/1940Z.
At 14/2036Z, LASCO C2 imagery observed a SW directed CME with a
plane-of-sky speed estimated at about 630 km/s. Initial analysis
indicates a potential Earth-directed component from this CME.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class activity through the period (16 -
18 November).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (16 - 17 November).
By day three (18 November), the field is expected to be at quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, in response to a
possible glancing blow from the CME observed late on 14 November.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Nov a 18 Nov
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Nov 148 Previsto 16 Nov-18 Nov 150/145/150 Media de 90 Días 15 Nov 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/000 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Nov 007/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 004/005-004/005-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Nov a 18 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 06% | 06% | 33% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 11% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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