Viendo archivo del miércoles, 16 noviembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 320 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Nov 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to an M-class flare
observed during the period. Region 1348 (N20,L088), which rotated
off of the west limb, produced an M1/1f at 15/2235Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class activity through the period (17 -
19 November).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (17 November). By day two
and three (18 - 19 November), the field is expected to be at quiet
to unsettled levels with isolated active periods, in response to a
possible glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection observed late
on 14 November.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Nov a 19 Nov
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Nov 142 Previsto 17 Nov-19 Nov 145/150/150 Media de 90 Días 16 Nov 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Nov 007/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Nov 004/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 005/005-007/007-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Nov a 19 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 06% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 16% | 17% | 17% |
| Tormenta Menor | 17% | 22% | 22% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 13% | 13% |
All times in UTC
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