Viendo archivo del miércoles, 13 junio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jun 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 165 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Jun 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1504 (S17E14)
produced a long duration M1/1n flare at 13/1317Z associated with a
260 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep. This region showed
growth in the leading spots and developed a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2
imagery at 13/1412Z with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity between
700 and 800 km/s. Old Region 1507 was split into two regions as it
showed two distinct bipolar areas and now consists of Region 1507
(S25W13) and Region 1508 (S28W06).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 14-15 June. An increase to unsettled levels
is expected mid-day on day 3 (16 June) due to a possible glancing
blow from todays CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Jun a 16 Jun
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Jun 143 Previsto 14 Jun-16 Jun 145/145/145 Media de 90 Días 13 Jun 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Jun 010/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Jun 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 006/005-006/005-009/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Jun a 16 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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