Viendo archivo del lunes, 9 julio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 191 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Jul 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1515 (S15W89) produced
the largest event of the period, a C7/Sf at 09/0830Z. Region 1520
(S17E33) continued its growth phase in area coverage, spot count and
magnetic complexity, but remained relatively quiet through the
period. New Region 1521 (S22E21) was numbered as a D-type group. A
large filament eruption was observed in the SW quadrant at about
09/0930Z. At the time of its eruption, the 23 degree long filament
was centered near S35W32. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the previous 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class events for the next three days
(10 - 12 July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with
high latitude major storm intervals. This activity was most likely
a result of CME effects from the 04 July M1 event. ACE solar data
indicated wind velocities ranged between 400 to 450 km/s. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was generally south
throughout the period ranging between -5 to -10 nT from about
09/0600Z through the end of the period. Interplanetary field
strength was at 10 to 12 nT through most of the period. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at 09/0130Z,
reached a maximum of 19 pfu at 09/0430Z and ended at 09/1445Z. This
weak SEP event was most likely associated with the 08 July M6/1n
flare from Region 1515.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods on day one (10 July) due to possible weak effects
from the 06 July CME. A return to mostly quiet conditions is
expected for days two and three (11 - 12 July).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Jul a 12 Jul
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Jul 174 Previsto 10 Jul-12 Jul 165/160/155 Media de 90 Días 09 Jul 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Jul 015/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Jul 018/027 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 013/015-007/010-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Jul a 12 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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