Viendo archivo del martes, 13 abril 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Apr 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 103 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Apr 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Apr, 15 Apr, 16 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 383 km/s at 12/2137Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
13/1932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/0854Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 126 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (15 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Apr a 16 Apr
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Apr 073 Previsto 14 Apr-16 Apr 074/074/072 Media de 90 Días 13 Apr 076
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Apr 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Apr 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 006/005-007/008-014/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Apr a 16 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 25% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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