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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Apr 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 102 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Apr 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 391 km/s at 11/2234Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
12/0619Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/0545Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 376 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Apr a 15 Apr
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Apr 083 Previsto 13 Apr-15 Apr 078/078/078 Media de 90 Días 12 Apr 076
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Apr 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Apr 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Apr a 15 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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