Viendo archivo del lunes, 10 mayo 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 May 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 130 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 May 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 May,
12 May, 13 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 367 km/s at 10/0422Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
10/0514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/0741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 619 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 May) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (12 May, 13 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 May a 13 May
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 May 077 Previsto 11 May-13 May 077/077/080 Media de 90 Días 10 May 076
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 May 006/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 May 007/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 008/008-007/008-014/016
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 May a 13 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 40% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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