Viendo archivo del martes, 11 mayo 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 May 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 131 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 May 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 May,
13 May, 14 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 359 km/s at 11/0600Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
10/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
10/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 220 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 May, 13 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 May a 14 May
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 May 076 Previsto 12 May-14 May 076/078/078 Media de 90 Días 11 May 076
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 May 008/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 May 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 007/008-014/016-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 May a 14 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 45% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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