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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 May 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 134 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 May 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 May,
16 May, 17 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 420 km/s at 13/2225Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
14/2031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/1937Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 197 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 May, 16 May) and quiet to
active levels on day three (17 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 May a 17 May
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 May 071 Previsto 15 May-17 May 072/072/072 Media de 90 Días 14 May 076
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 May 007/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 May 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 006/005-006/005-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 May a 17 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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