Viendo archivo del domingo, 19 septiembre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Sep 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 262 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Sep 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/0115Z from Region 2871 (S28E61). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Sep,
21 Sep, 22 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 413 km/s at 18/2215Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
19/1146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
18/2233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Sep 075 Previsto 20 Sep-22 Sep 075/075/075 Media de 90 Días 19 Sep 082
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Sep 014/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Sep 003/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 006/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
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