Viendo archivo del viernes, 24 septiembre 2021

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Sep 24 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 267 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Sep 2021

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 24/0701Z from Region 2871 (S28E01). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 24/0830Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/0635Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 309 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (26 Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (27 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Sep a 27 Sep
Clase M05%05%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 Sep 088
  Previsto   25 Sep-27 Sep 088/086/082
  Media de 90 Días        24 Sep 082

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 23 Sep  010/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 24 Sep  007/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  009/010-011/018-020/028

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Sep a 27 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%35%30%
Tormenta Menor10%35%40%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%10%20%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%05%05%
Tormenta Menor25%25%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa35%70%75%

All times in UTC

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