Viendo archivo del jueves, 21 octubre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Oct 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 294 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Oct 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 561 km/s at 21/0105Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
20/2139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 144 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Oct a 24 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Oct 082 Previsto 22 Oct-24 Oct 082/083/084 Media de 90 Días 21 Oct 082
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Oct 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Oct 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Oct a 24 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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