Viendo archivo del jueves, 18 noviembre 2021
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2021 Nov 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 322 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Nov 2021IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 17/2134Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 18/0104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
18/0518Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 365 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Nov a 21 Nov
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Nov 082 Previsto 19 Nov-21 Nov 080/080/082 Media de 90 Días 18 Nov 087
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Nov 009/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Nov 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 007/008-009/012-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Nov a 21 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 40% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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