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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Aug 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 240 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Aug 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
28/1619Z from Region 3088 (S27W87). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (29 Aug) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 28/0734Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 27/2259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/0924Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 12 pfu at 27/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (29 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (31 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (29 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Aug a 31 Aug
| Clase M | 55% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 50% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Aug 252 Previsto 29 Aug-31 Aug 126/120/120 Media de 90 Días 28 Aug 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Aug 011/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Aug 013/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 020/030-010/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Aug a 31 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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