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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 241 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Aug 2022

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 29/1107Z from Region 3088 (S27W95). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class or X-class flares on day one (30 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 29/1410Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 29/0404Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 29/0310Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 29/0650Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 167 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (31 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (01 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (30 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Aug a 01 Sep
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X25%10%10%
Protón10%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       29 Aug 131
  Previsto   30 Aug-01 Sep 130/125/120
  Media de 90 Días        29 Aug 120

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 28 Aug  007/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 29 Aug  018/027
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  013/015-007/008-006/005

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Aug a 01 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%25%10%
Tormenta Menor20%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%15%15%
Tormenta Menor30%30%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa50%30%15%

All times in UTC

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