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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Sep 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 248 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Sep 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/1805Z from Region 3089 (S23W88). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (06 Sep) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares on days two and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 680 km/s at 04/2333Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 04/2319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 05/1251Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 9252 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (06 Sep), quiet to active
levels on day two (07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(08 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (06 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Sep a 08 Sep
| Clase M | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Sep 130 Previsto 06 Sep-08 Sep 125/125/122 Media de 90 Días 05 Sep 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Sep 033/060 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Sep 025/033 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 018/020-010/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Sep a 08 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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