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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Oct 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 275 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Oct 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
02/2025Z from Region 3110 (N17W52). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04
Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 02/2039Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 02/2015Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
02/2031Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 145 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Oct), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (04 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (05 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Oct 154 Previsto 03 Oct-05 Oct 155/155/145 Media de 90 Días 02 Oct 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 002/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Oct 010/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 016/020-027/040-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 40% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 20% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| noviembre 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| diciembre 2025 | 125.7 +33.9 |
| Last 30 days | 109.3 +18.1 |