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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Oct 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 276 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Oct 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
03/1011Z from Region 3110 (N18W65). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (04 Oct) and likely to be
moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days two and three (05 Oct,
06 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 03/1218Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 03/1744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 03/1900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 282 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (04 Oct), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (05 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(04 Oct), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (05 Oct) and
have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (06 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Oct a 06 Oct
| Clase M | 75% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Protón | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Oct 155 Previsto 04 Oct-06 Oct 154/152/148 Media de 90 Días 03 Oct 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Oct 009/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Oct 023/032 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 028/040-015/020-010/014
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Oct a 06 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 25% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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