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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Oct 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 294 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Oct 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/0717Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 20/2323Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 21/2046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/0524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1164 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Oct, 24 Oct)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (23 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Oct a 24 Oct
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Oct 109 Previsto 22 Oct-24 Oct 110/112/110 Media de 90 Días 21 Oct 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Oct NA/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Oct 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 009/012-016/020-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Oct a 24 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 60% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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