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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 294 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Oct 2022

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 21/0717Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 20/2323Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/2046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1164 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Oct, 24 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (23 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Oct a 24 Oct
Clase M05%05%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 Oct 109
  Previsto   22 Oct-24 Oct 110/112/110
  Media de 90 Días        21 Oct 127

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Oct   NA/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Oct  005/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  009/012-016/020-010/012

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Oct a 24 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%40%25%
Tormenta Menor10%25%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%10%15%
Tormenta Menor25%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa40%60%35%

All times in UTC

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