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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2022 Dec 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 356 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Dec 2022IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
21/2219Z from Region 3169 (N19E19). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 22/1908Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 22/1612Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
22/1731Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 127 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Dec a 25 Dec
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Dec 131 Previsto 23 Dec-25 Dec 130/130/130 Media de 90 Días 22 Dec 133
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Dec 007/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Dec 007/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 010/010-009/008-006/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Dec a 25 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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