Viendo archivo del martes, 7 febrero 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Feb 07 2250 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 38 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Feb 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/2007Z from Region 3213 (N31W01). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb,
10 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 614 km/s at 07/0822Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 07/0223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 07/0148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 216 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Feb,
09 Feb, 10 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Feb a 10 Feb
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Feb 185 Previsto 08 Feb-10 Feb 185/185/190 Media de 90 Días 07 Feb 153
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Feb 013/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Feb 016/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 011/012-007/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Feb a 10 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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