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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Apr 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 106 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Apr 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
16/1744Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 1196 km/s at 16/0034Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
16/0109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
16/1821Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 165 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19
Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Apr a 19 Apr
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Apr 178 Previsto 17 Apr-19 Apr 178/170/168 Media de 90 Días 16 Apr 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Apr 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Apr 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Apr a 19 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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