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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 May 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 134 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 May 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
14/0917Z from Region 3296 (N15, L=141). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
May, 16 May, 17 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 14/2009Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 14/1514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
14/1515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 204 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 May), unsettled to active levels on
day two (16 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 May a 17 May
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 May 140 Previsto 15 May-17 May 135/135/130 Media de 90 Días 14 May 156
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 May 012/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 May 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 005/005-011/014-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 May a 17 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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