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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jun 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 171 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jun 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
20/1709Z from Region 3341 (S15E58). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 19/2255Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/0914Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/1151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2203 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Jun, 22 Jun) and
quiet levels on day three (23 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jun a 23 Jun
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Jun 180 Previsto 21 Jun-23 Jun 180/185/190 Media de 90 Días 20 Jun 153
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jun 009/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 011/012-010/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jun a 23 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 35% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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