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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jul 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 198 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Jul 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/1516Z from Region 3372 (N23E01). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 620 km/s at 16/1729Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 16/2231Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 16/2155Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 16/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (19 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (20 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one and two (18 Jul, 19 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (20 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Jul a 20 Jul
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Jul 180 Previsto 18 Jul-20 Jul 178/174/172 Media de 90 Días 17 Jul 160
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Jul 013/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Jul 019/024 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 019/026-010/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Jul a 20 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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