Viendo archivo del domingo, 16 julio 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jul 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 197 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Jul 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
16/1746Z from Region 3363 (S24W59). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (19 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 16/1941Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 16/1947Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
16/2037Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 17 pfu at 16/0735Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (17 Jul, 18
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Jul). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Jul), have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day two (18 Jul) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (19 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Jul a 19 Jul
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Protón | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Jul 184 Previsto 17 Jul-19 Jul 184/182/178 Media de 90 Días 16 Jul 160
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Jul 009/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Jul 005/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 013/018-018/026-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Jul a 19 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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