Viendo archivo del sábado, 12 agosto 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Aug 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 224 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Aug 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
12/0915Z from Region 3395 (N13W44). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug,
15 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 12/0948Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 11/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/0206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1031 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15
Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Aug a 15 Aug
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Aug 148 Previsto 13 Aug-15 Aug 145/140/130 Media de 90 Días 12 Aug 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Aug 006/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Aug 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Aug a 15 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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