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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Jul 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 199 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jul 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
18/0006Z from Region 3363 (S21W86). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (19 Jul) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 17/2204Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 17/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 18/0121Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 619 pfu at 18/0615Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 936 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (19 Jul, 21 Jul)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (20 Jul). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (19 Jul), are likely to cross
threshold on day two (20 Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day three (21 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jul a 21 Jul
| Clase M | 55% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Protón | 95% | 70% | 50% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Jul 219 Previsto 19 Jul-21 Jul 210/210/210 Media de 90 Días 18 Jul 161
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jul 019/023 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Jul 016/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 010/012-018/028-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jul a 21 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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| Último evento clase M | 01/02/2026 | M1.9 |
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