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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Aug 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 226 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Aug 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/0242Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 14/0608Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/0134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/1156Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1252 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Aug a 17 Aug
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Aug 154 Previsto 15 Aug-17 Aug 155/150/150 Media de 90 Días 14 Aug 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Aug 007/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 006/005-009/012-014/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Aug a 17 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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