Viendo archivo del sábado, 5 agosto 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Aug 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 217 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Aug 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/0936Z from Region 3380 (S10, L=125). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (06 Aug,
07 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (08 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 05/1017Z. Total IMF
reached 25 nT at 05/0230Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-23 nT at 05/0226Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 18 pfu at 05/1745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (08 Aug). Protons greater than
10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (06 Aug) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (07 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Aug a 08 Aug
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 35% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 75% | 20% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Aug 176 Previsto 06 Aug-08 Aug 170/168/166 Media de 90 Días 05 Aug 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Aug NA/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Aug 027/037 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 009/010-009/012-014/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Aug a 08 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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