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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Sep 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 244 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Sep 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/0351Z from Region 3413 (N10W74). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (02 Sep) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (03 Sep,
04 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 01/2024Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 31/2154Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
01/1256Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 25 pfu at 01/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Sep), active to minor
storm levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross
threshold on day one (02 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day two (03 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| Clase M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 99% | 30% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Sep 136 Previsto 02 Sep-04 Sep 135/135/130 Media de 90 Días 01 Sep 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 008/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Sep 012/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 013/015-025/035-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 15% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 70% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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