Viendo archivo del viernes, 11 agosto 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Aug 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 223 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Aug 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
11/0656Z from Region 3395 (N13W31). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug,
14 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 541 km/s at 10/2221Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
11/1653Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/1535Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 10/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1386 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Aug, 13 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (14 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (12 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Aug a 14 Aug
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Aug 153 Previsto 12 Aug-14 Aug 150/145/140 Media de 90 Días 11 Aug 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Aug 008/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Aug 006/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 006/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Aug a 14 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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