Viendo archivo del domingo, 10 septiembre 2023
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2023 Sep 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 253 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Sep 2023IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
10/0155Z from Region 3423 (N16W16). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep,
13 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 546 km/s at 10/0220Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
10/0130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/1359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Sep 164 Previsto 11 Sep-13 Sep 160/155/155 Media de 90 Días 10 Sep 162
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Sep 012/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 008/008-011/015-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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